The Virginia SREC Market Outlook (April 2026)

We've been working hard to strengthen Virginia’s SREC market. We’re excited to share that RECmint—of which you’re an important part—delivered a big win.

• Last month, the Distributed Generation Expansion Act, which is expected to increase SREC revenue for solar owners in Virginia, passed with significant bipartisan support (passing unanimously, 98-0, in the House)

• Governor Spanberger signed it into law this Monday evening

• RECmint played a central role in getting this bill passed

Before we get into what this means for our customer's SREC revenue, we wanted to briefly share the work that went into making this happen. Beginning 18 months ago, we:

• Engaged leading energy policy experts

• Engaged clean energy advocates in Virginia

• Helped draft the bill in partnership with Senator VanValkenburg and Delegate Callsen

• Conducted technical market research and analysis

• Aligned key stakeholders—including trade groups, small businesses, solar installers, and industry peers—around the structure and details of the bill

• Met with Governor Spanberger and provided ongoing education to her team

• Secured industry support letters and circulated them among legislators

• Navigated challenges throughout the legislative session

Our early investment and leadership were critical to the successful passage of the Distributed Generation Expansion Act. We’re proud of the role we played in delivering this outcome for the solar community in Virginia.

So, what does this mean for the REC market?

Expect a gradual but steady increase in your SREC revenue. Prices have been steadily declining since 2022, with liquidity drying up significantly last year. Read more about why. The new law goes into effect on July 1, 2026, which will increase the “solar carveout” in VA from 1% to 4.5%.

Over time, this 4.5x increase in demand is expected to bring the market back into balance—one of the core goals of the legislation. SREC pricing is driven by several factors, including supply, demand, liquidity, and the effective price ceiling set by the Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP). In mature, balanced markets, prices typically settle between 65% and 85% of the ACP. We can’t predict exactly how quickly your revenue will increase, as Dominion’s procurement strategy remains the primary driver. That said, we cautiously expect your SREC revenue could rise by 60–90% over the next 18 months as the market adjusts—though we’re hopeful it moves faster!

As the market evolves, we’ll continue working to optimize both pricing and payment frequency for you.

SRECs play a critical role in the clean energy transition, and we know how important these payments are to your system’s economics. We’ll continue to advocate and lead where there’s opportunity.